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Spatial Epidemiology of the Syphilis Epidemic in Toronto, Canada

imageBackgroundUrban centers across Canada and the United States have battled syphilis epidemics with high rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection for over a decade. We examined the spatial epidemiology of syphilis over time for Toronto (Canada) with the intention of forming new insights and strategies for restoring low syphilis rates. MethodsSyphilis incidence rates, HIV-syphilis coinfection, and sexual risk behavior prevalences were estimated and mapped from primary, secondary, early latent syphilis cases reported to Toronto Public Health between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2010, using ArcGIS 9.0. Geographic clusters of significantly elevated syphilis incidence rates were identified using SaTScan 9.0. The relationship between syphilis incidence rates and sociocultural factors was modeled using the Besag, York, and Mollie model. ResultsBetween 2006 and 2010, syphilis incidence rates were high in Toronto’s downtown core area, intensified, and spread outward initiating 3 independent outbreak areas. HIV coinfection was high (47%); however, no spatial clustering was identified. Syphilis incidence rates, HIV coinfection, and behavioral risk factors promoting sexually transmitted infection transmission were high outside the core area, suggesting that peripheral sexual networks may be influencing high syphilis infection rates both inside and outside the core. ConclusionsToronto’s syphilis epidemic is mature. Response, resources, and intervention activities should target core and noncore areas. 11/01/2014 01:00 AM

Neighborhoods at Risk: Estimating Risk of Higher Neisseria gonorrhoeae Incidence Among Women at the Census Tract Level

imageBackgroundThe association between area-based social factors and sexually transmitted diseases has been demonstrated in numerous studies. Such associations have not previously been explored for their potential to quantify likelihood of higher transmission of gonorrhea in small geographic areas. MethodsAggregate census tract-level sociodemographic factors in 4 domains (demographics, educational attainment, household income, and housing characteristics) were merged with female gonorrhea incidence data from 113 counties in 10 US states. Multivariate models were constructed, and a tract-level composite gonorrhea risk index was calculated. This composite risk index was validated against gonorrhea incidence among women from 2 independent states. ResultsSeven tract-level factors were found to be most strongly correlated with female gonorrhea incidence: educational attainment, proportion of female headed households, annual household income below US $20,000, proportion of population non-Hispanic black, proportion of housing units currently vacant, proportion of population reporting moving in last year, and proportion of households that are nonfamily units. Composite index was highly correlated with female gonorrhea in the study area and validated with independent data. ConclusionsSocial factors predict gonorrhea incidence at the census tract level and identify small areas at risk for higher morbidity. These data may be used by health departments and health care practices to develop geographically based disease prevention and control efforts. This is especially useful because gonorrhea incidence data are not routinely available below the county level in many states. 11/01/2014 01:00 AM

The Estimated Impact of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Coverage on the Lifetime Cervical Cancer Burden Among Girls Currently Aged 12 Years and Younger in the United States

imageAbstractUsing a previously published dynamic model, we illustrate the potential benefits of human papillomavirus vaccination among girls currently 12 years or younger in the United States. Increasing vaccine coverage of young girls to 80% would avert 53,300 lifetime cervical cancer cases versus 30% coverage and 28,800 cases versus 50% coverage. 11/01/2014 01:00 AM

The Estimated Lifetime Probability of Acquiring Human Papillomavirus in the United States

imageBackgroundEstimates of the lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) can help to quantify HPV incidence, illustrate how common HPV infection is, and highlight the importance of HPV vaccination. MethodsWe developed a simple model, based primarily on the distribution of lifetime numbers of sex partners across the population and the per-partnership probability of acquiring HPV, to estimate the lifetime probability of acquiring HPV in the United States in the time frame before HPV vaccine availability. ResultsWe estimated the average lifetime probability of acquiring HPV among those with at least 1 opposite sex partner to be 84.6% (range, 53.6%–95.0%) for women and 91.3% (range, 69.5%–97.7%) for men. Under base case assumptions, more than 80% of women and men acquire HPV by age 45 years. ConclusionsOur results are consistent with estimates in the existing literature suggesting a high lifetime probability of HPV acquisition and are supported by cohort studies showing high cumulative HPV incidence over a relatively short period, such as 3 to 5 years. 11/01/2014 01:00 AM

Estimating Chlamydia Screening Coverage: A Comparison of Self-report and Health Care Effectiveness Data and Information Set Measures

imageBackgroundPopulation-based surveys (self-report) and health insurance administrative data (Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set [HEDIS]) are used to estimate chlamydia screening coverage in the United States. Estimates from these methods differ, but few studies have compared these 2 indices in the same population. MethodsIn 2010, we surveyed a random sample of women aged 18 to 25 years enrolled in a Washington State–managed care organization. Respondents were asked if they were sexually active in last year and if they tested for chlamydia in that time. We linked survey responses to administrative records of chlamydia testing and reproductive/testing services used, which comprise the HEDIS definition of the screened population and the sexually active population, respectively. We compared self-report and HEDIS using 3 outcomes: (1) sexual activity (gold standard = self-report), (2) any chlamydia screening (no gold standard), and (3) within-plan chlamydia screening (gold standard = HEDIS). ResultsOf 954 eligible respondents, 377 (40%) completed the survey and consented to administrative record linkage. Chlamydia screening estimates for HEDIS and self-report were 47% and 53%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of HEDIS to define sexually active women were 84.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79.6%–89.1%) and 63.5% (95% CI, 52.4%–73.7%), respectively. Forty percent of women had a chlamydia test in their administrative record, but 53% self-reported being tested for chlamydia (κ = 0.35); 19% reported out-of-plan chlamydia testing. The sensitivity of self-reported within-plan chlamydia testing was 71.3% (95% CI, 61.0%–80.1%); the specificity was 80.6% (95% CI, 72.6%–87.2%). ConclusionsThe Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set does not accurately identify sexually active women and may underestimate chlamydia testing coverage. Self-reported testing may not be an accurate measure of true chlamydial testing coverage. 11/01/2014 01:00 AM

For Partner Services, do we need “face-time,” or FaceTime?: Trends in Relative Proportion of In-person Notifications and HIV Testing After Introduction of a Telephone Option for HIV Exposure Notification by Public Health

imageAbstractPublic health usually notifies partners of STD exposure in-person despite availability of other options. We examined trends in in-person versus telephone notification for HIV 3 years after the introduction of a telephone option. Most notifications were made by telephone. Partners notified doubled; however, the proportion HIV testing declined slightly. 11/01/2014 01:00 AM

Y Chromosome and HIV DNA Detection in Vaginal Swabs as Biomarkers of Semen and HIV Exposure in Women

imageBackgroundThe inability to quantify sexual exposure to HIV limits the power of HIV prevention trials of vaccines, microbicides, and preexposure prophylaxis in women. We investigated the detection of HIV-1 and Y chromosomal (Yc) DNA in vaginal swabs from 83 participants in the HPTN 035 microbicide trial as biomarkers of HIV exposure and unprotected sexual activity. MethodsOne hundred forty-three vaginal swabs from 85 women were evaluated for the presence of Yc DNA (Quantifiler Duo DNA quantification kit; Applied Biosystems) and total HIV-1 DNA (single-copy in-house quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay). Y DNA detection was paired with self-reported behavioral data with regard to recent coitus (≤1 week before collection) and condom usage (100% vs. <100% compliance). ResultsYc DNA was detected in 62 (43%) of 143 swabs. For the 126 visits at which both behavioral data and swabs were collected, Yc DNA was significantly more frequent in women reporting less than 100% condom usage (odds ratio, 10.69; 95% confidence interval, 2.27–50.32; P = 0.003). Notably, 27 (33%) of 83 swabs from women reporting 100% condom usage were positive for Yc DNA. HIV DNA was only detected in swabs collected postseroconversion. ConclusionsThe use of Yc DNA in HIV prevention trials could reliably identify subgroups of women who have unprotected sexual activity and could provide valuable exposure-based estimates of efficacy. 11/01/2014 01:00 AM

Vitros 5600 Syphilis TPA Assay: Evaluation of an Automated Chemiluminescence Assay for Detection of Treponema pallidum Antibodies in a High Prevalence Setting

imageAbstractThe performance of the Syphilis TPA assay (Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics) on Vitros 5600 Integrated System was evaluated and demonstrated excellent results. Our data support the use of this assay for test confirmation in the traditional algorithm and for screening for syphilis in a routine automated laboratory setting when using the reverse algorithm. 11/01/2014 01:00 AM